Ghana face Panama without Partey in World Cup opener

Ghana and Panama meet in Toronto in a Group L opener where the fixture carries conflicting signals. The desk's Elo prior reflects a clear advantage to Ghana, built on deeper squad quality and recent international form. However, the market has priced Panama as the favourite, a view that does not align with the model's assessment.

Panama's path to this World Cup carries genuine credentials. They topped their Concacaf qualifying group and recently reached the Copa América quarter-finals and the 2023 Gold Cup final, demonstrating competitive capability at regional level. Coach Thomas Christiansen has built a pragmatic, organised outfit—typically deploying a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 with willingness to shift to a back five against stronger opponents. The side rests on experienced legs: captain Aníbal Godoy, a 36-year-old midfielder with over 150 caps, anchors the press and ball-winning duties, while right-back Michael Murillo, now 30 and seasoned across European and Turkish football, provides leadership and pace in the defensive line.

Ghana arrive as a more volatile prospect. New coach Carlos Queiroz has implemented a back-four and mid-block pressing system with improved full-back protection, a tactical evolution from the prior back-three approach. The squad carries attacking potential: Antoine Semenyo, fresh from 17 Premier League goals and the FA Cup final winner's medal with Bournemouth, offers a direct threat, while Benjamin Asare has stabilised the goalkeeper position—Ghana conceded just once in six World Cup qualifiers after his arrival, a stark improvement from earlier form.

The absence of Thomas Partey due to Canada's visa denial is a material loss. The 33-year-old midfielder was withdrawn at half-time in Ghana's warm-up against Wales, suggesting pre-existing concerns about his form, yet his presence would have reinforced Ghana's midfield control. Younger players like Caleb Yirenkyi and Christopher Bonsu Baah have pressed forward in selection, injecting dynamism in recent matches.

The Elo gap between the sides is substantial, reflecting Ghana's superior squad depth and the model's confidence in that advantage. Yet the market has priced the match to favour Panama, a reading that appears to underweight Ghana's quality and overweight Panama's recent tournament performances at a lower competitive register. The value lies with Ghana's superior underlying talent and tactical structure, even without Partey.