Every 2026 World Cup price, read by The Desk.

Odds Primer compares live market prices, runs its own model, and explains whether each price is a Pick, a Pass, or one to Avoid. Free. Editorial. No tips, no hype.

How The Desk works

Market prices update

Live snapshots from prediction markets and sportsbooks.

The model recalculates probabilities

An independent football model rebuilds each side's number.

The Desk compares market vs model

Two reads, one fixture — the gap is the editorial signal.

Pick / Pass / Avoid is published

With the reasoning, the citations, and what would move it.

The goal is not to predict everything. The goal is to identify where market pricing and model conviction meaningfully diverge.

Today’s headline verdict

All Matches

PickBrazil to winWed, Jun 24 · 10:00 PM UTC

ScotlandvBrazil

Upcoming WC matches

Scotland's opening victory over Haiti offers hope but little comfort ahead of a fixture against a Brazilian team that the model rates as substantially stronger. The desk identifies a meaningful edge for Brazil at the current odds.

Model89.9%

Market68.5%

The Edge:+21.4pp

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Verdict key

Pickthe line appears underpriced

Passthe line is fair — no edge to play

Avoidoverpriced both ways — sit it out

More picks

All Matches

PickCroatia to winSun, Jun 28 · 12:00 AM UTC

CroatiavGhana

Upcoming WC matches

Croatia and England meet in Group L with contrasting trajectories: England arrive as tournament favorites after a dominant second-half display against weaker opposition, while Croatia face a stern test after reaching two consecutive World Cup finals. The model sees material edge with England, though the market prices the match tighter than the underlying form suggests.

Model77.5%Market60.2%+17.2pp

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PickIran to winSat, Jun 27 · 3:00 AM UTC

EgyptvIran

Upcoming WC matches

Egypt and Iran meet in a high-stakes Group G fixture where the desk's Elo model sees Iran as the stronger side, but the market has materially underrated them. Iran's resilience despite severe logistical disruptions and a capable attacking unit offer value.

Model41.0%Market24.5%+16.5pp

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PickMexico to winThu, Jun 25 · 1:00 AM UTC

Czech RepublicvMexico

Upcoming WC matches

Mexico enter as strong favourites after reaching the last 32, while South Korea need a result to stay competitive. The Elo model sees significant edge with the hosts, though the market has compressed that advantage.

Model60.3%Market45.9%+14.4pp

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PickJapan to winSun, Jun 21 · 4:00 AM UTC

TunisiavJapan

Upcoming WC matches

Japan drew with the Netherlands in their opener and face a reshaped Tunisia side that sacked its manager after a heavy defeat to Sweden. The Elo model's edge sits materially with Japan, though the market prices the favourite more aggressively than the prior suggests, creating a case for the underdog.

Model77.6%Market64.5%+13.1pp

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PickIran to winSun, Jun 21 · 10:00 PM UTC

BelgiumvIran

Upcoming WC matches

Belgium hold a clear edge in the Elo model against a depleted but determined Iran side facing severe logistical constraints. The market prices Belgium as heavy favorites, though Iran's comeback ability against New Zealand suggests they remain a live threat.

Model25.5%Market12.9%+12.6pp

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The Desk

Comparing market prices against an independent football model.

The Desk compares live market pricing against an independent football model and publishes a verdict on every priced market it covers.

The Desk does not chase every match. It looks for disagreement, overreaction, uncertainty, and mispricing — and stays quiet when the line is already doing its job.

Editorial analysis only. Odds Primer does not provide betting, investment, or financial advice.

Data sources: prediction markets, sportsbooks, public football data, internal model estimates.

Corrections & contact: editor@oddsprimer.com