England vs Croatia: World Cup 2026 Group-Stage Opener in Dallas

England vs Croatia — World Cup 2026, Group L

These two sides carry significant recent history into Dallas. Croatia ended England's 2018 World Cup hopes in the semi-finals and have since finished third at the 2022 edition, demonstrating a persistent ability to overperform expectations at major tournaments. England, meanwhile, beat Croatia in Euro 2020 qualifying at Wembley, arrive off a flawless World Cup qualification campaign — eight wins, eight clean sheets — and appear to have sharpened further under Thomas Tuchel's structured preparation over the past fortnight.

What the model says vs. what the market says

The Elo ratings give England a meaningful advantage, reflecting a genuine gap in underlying quality between the two squads. However, the market has pushed England's implied win probability meaningfully beyond what the model's prior supports, creating a situation where the market materially overrates England relative to the desk's assessment. The edge in this fixture does not sit with the favourite — it sits with Croatia and the draw. For a side with Croatia's knockout pedigree, being underpriced in this way is a notable signal.

England's strengths and uncertainties

England's attacking spine is formidable. Harry Kane arrives having scored at an extraordinary rate for Bayern Munich this season — his best ever campaign — and Croatia's own Duje Caleta-Car has publicly acknowledged Kane as a "master of the game." Jude Bellingham, who wore the captain's armband in both Florida friendlies, appears to have won the No. 10 battle over Morgan Rogers, with Jordan Henderson describing him as an "X factor" for big occasions. Declan Rice, fresh from Premier League success and a standout Champions League run with Arsenal, anchors the midfield. England also qualified with a perfect record and no goals conceded, which speaks to defensive solidity under Tuchel.

Yet there are genuine questions. Bukayo Saka's fitness is being carefully managed — reports from England's first training session suggest he was not moving freely, and Tuchel has indicated his minutes may be limited. A fitness-compromised Saka significantly reduces England's attacking threat on the right flank. The pre-tournament disruptions — equipment theft, a tornado warning at their Kansas City base — have been resolved without apparent impact on morale, but the squad's first training session data suggests some uncertainty around the starting XI.

Croatia's case as a live underdog

Croatia are not a side to dismiss. Their 2018 semi-final win over England and their 2022 third-place finish are evidence of a team that routinely competes beyond their Elo ceiling in tournament football. Kane himself described Croatia as "one of the best teams in the last two World Cups." The market's pricing leaves Croatia with a live chance at longer odds than the model believes is warranted.