DR Congo vs Uzbekistan: Contrasting trajectories meet in World Cup debut clash

DR Congo and Uzbekistan meet in a fixture that pits continental experience against Asia's emerging depth. DR Congo reached the semi-final of AFCON 2023 under head coach Sebastien Desabre and has shown gradual progress, arriving at their first World Cup since 1974 with squad confidence intact despite facing elite opposition in their group. Uzbekistan, making their World Cup debut as an independent nation, qualified impressively by losing only one of 16 qualification matches across two rounds, drawing all four encounters with Iran and maintaining an effective 3-4-3 tactical system under successive coaches.

The model's prior view on DR Congo sits materially stronger than the market's implied odds, pointing to a clear analytical edge on the African side. The Elo ratings reflect a gap that favours Uzbekistan, yet the market has priced DR Congo's chances below what the desk's model suggests their true underlying strength warrants. This divergence merits attention, especially given Uzbekistan's mixed recent form—they lost to Uruguay and faced defeats to Canada and the Netherlands in warm-up matches, despite victories over Gabon and Egypt.

Uzbekistan will lean on Manchester City defender Abdukodir Khusanov, the country's most recognisable player and a recent FA Cup and League Cup winner, alongside goalkeeper Utkir Yusupov, who proved decisive during qualification by saving penalties against North Korea. Fabio Cannavaro, the 2006 World Cup winner with 176 international caps for Italy, now directs their approach, though his previous coaching record has been uneven. Jaloliddin Masharipov, a veteran midfielder, carries a back problem into the match.

DR Congo's defence will feature Axel Tuanzebe and Aaron Wan-Bissaka alongside one another, providing Premier League familiarity and recent competitive experience. The squad's confidence remains unshaken despite their group assignment, a psychological asset that often proves decisive in debut World Cup encounters where nerves can dominate less-seasoned units.

The model favours DR Congo relative to the market, presenting a clear analytical case for the underdog African side. Uzbekistan's structural preparation and qualification form are formidable, yet the Elo gap does not fully capture the nuances of tournament football, where experience and psychological resilience—particularly in a first-ever World Cup appearance—carry weight the rating system may undervalue.