Argentina face Jordan in World Cup opener amid questions over squad depth

Argentina enter the 2026 World Cup as defending champions and top-ranked contenders, tasked with fending off Jordan in their opening group fixture. The desk's Elo model strongly favours the South Americans, reflecting their pedigree, qualifying dominance, and the vast gap in tournament experience between the two sides. The market prices Argentina as overwhelming favourites, and the model's prior sits broadly aligned with those prices, leaving only a marginal edge on the title holders.

Jordan represent a significant step up in class for Argentina, but the newcomers arrive depleted. The withdrawal of talismanic striker Yazan Al-Naimat through cruciate ligament injury represents a major blow to their attacking hopes, and Ali Olwan's absence from competitive football since February—despite expected fitness—underscores their preparation challenges. The side reached the 2023 Asian Cup final and possess established attacking talent in Musa Al-Taamari, who has enjoyed a fine second season for Rennes, yet they lost friendlies to Switzerland and Colombia in their build-up. Coach Jamal Sellami's preferred 3-4-3 formation may offer defensive solidity, but Jordan's qualification as one of four debutant nations masks a stark talent disparity.

Argentina's credentials are substantial: they topped South American qualifying by nine points, won the 2024 Copa America, and have retained 17 of their 2022 World Cup-winning squad. However, recent reporting flags concerns about squad age and preparation intensity. Lionel Messi, playing his sixth World Cup at 39, has managed a muscle strain and remains a vital leader despite the physical demands ahead. Key midfielders Alexis Mac Allister, Nicolas Tagliafico, and Leandro Paredes are all reported as coming off poor club seasons, while defender Cristian Romero's erratic moments at key times have drawn scrutiny. Goalkeeper Emi Martinez continues recovery from a broken finger. Taken together, these factors suggest a squad that remains formidable on paper but faces genuine fitness and sharpness questions entering tournament play.

The model's edge reflects the chasm in experience and absolute quality. Argentina's Elo advantage is substantial, and their qualification dominance is hard to dismiss. Yet the market's pricing of Jordan at near-token odds, combined with reported squad depth concerns in Argentina's ranks, prevents a strong independent editorial call. This is largely a confirmation of the formula: Argentina should win and may win convincingly, but the margin of victory remains to be determined against a debutant side that, injuries notwithstanding, showed enough in Asian Cup qualification to warrant respect.