Argentina face Austria in World Cup Group J clash

Argentina begin their World Cup title defence against Austria in a fixture that pits the defending champions and top seed in Group J against a side appearing in the tournament for the first time in 28 years. The Elo model's assessment of Argentina's strength sits well clear of the market's implied price, pointing to a substantial edge with the favourites.

Argentina arrive as formidable contenders. They topped South American qualifying with 12 wins from 18 games and won Copa America in 2024, cementing their status as the tournament's defending champions. Seventeen members of their 2022 World Cup-winning squad return, providing considerable continuity in experience and method. The squad includes Lionel Messi, who will compete in his sixth World Cup as captain and remains a vital leader despite now being 39, alongside emerging young talent to support the title defence.

Austria's credentials are more modest. They qualified for the first time in 28 years and topped a Euro 2024 group containing France and the Netherlands, a creditable performance in European qualifying. However, the squad has been dealt a significant blow with the loss of Christoph Baumgartner, their 26-year-old RB Leipzig midfielder, to a thigh injury. Konrad Laimer (Bayern Munich) and Paul Wanner (regarded as one of the brightest young talents in world football) offer attacking thrust, but Austria will need to manage the gulf in pedigree.

The model's probability for Argentina reads comfortably higher than the market's implied odds, reflecting the defending champions' superior Elo rating, recent form, and the experience of their squad. Austria, though organised and capable of creating chances, face a side with world-class infrastructure and the proven ability to perform at the highest level. Argentina's margin in adjusted rating is pronounced, and their path through qualifying underscores their consistency.

Key considerations: Argentina have managed recent injury concerns (Messi returned briefly after a muscle strain, and goalkeeper Emi Martinez continues recovery from a broken finger), but the squad appears sufficiently deep to absorb these absences. The venue—Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas—provides Argentina with strong fan support, creating a favourable home-ground effect. Austria's Baumgartner absence removes a creative outlet in midfield, narrowing their tactical options against a side that excels at controlling possession and pace.