Norway vs France: Model favours the home underdog in group opener

This group-stage encounter pits two contrasting tournament narratives. Norway arrive fresh from dominating their qualifying section, scoring more goals than any other European nation while conceding just five across their eight fixtures. Their setup under Stålé Solbakken emphasizes technical control and quick transitions, anchored by world-class operators like Martin Ødegaard—who led Europe in assists during qualification—and Erling Haaland, whose 16 qualifying goals matched the continental record. The team's modern, fluid approach prioritizes possession and creative progression over physicality, and they showed further promise in recent warm-ups.

France, conversely, enter as tournament favourites and defending finalists. They possess exceptional attacking depth with Kylian Mbappé as captain, Ousmane Dembélé (the reigning Ballon d'Or winner), and emerging talents like Michael Olise, who scored a hat-trick in France's latest warm-up. Didier Deschamps has built a squad of remarkable offensive talent, though some analysts caution the attack-minded approach risks creating imbalance without proper defensive structure. France reached two successive World Cup finals and remain among the competition's elite.

The desk's Elo prior grants Norway a clear edge on the balance of play, reflecting their dominant qualifying form, elite midfield, and structured approach. The model's probability sits materially above the market-implied odds for the Norwegians. Against that, France's pedigree—two finals in four years, a squad of proven tournament experience, and Mbappé's proven World Cup record—explains why the market rates them substantially higher. The tension between the model's assessment of Norway's form and the market's preference for France's name recognition creates the fixture's central narrative.

Key factors tilt toward Norway: their perfect qualifying record, Ødegaard's creative dominance, Haaland's lethal finishing, and a tactical system designed to control possession and create chances. France's concern remains converting attacking talent into reliable structure, particularly in a tournament where defensive solidity often decides tight matches. Deschamps' final tournament in charge adds another layer of intensity to France's ambitions.

The value sits with Norway at the offered price, where the model sees genuine live chances despite the market underrating their qualifying credentials and elite attacking platform.