Uruguay face Spain in Group H showdown with contrasting trajectories

Spain and Uruguay meet in a Group H clash that shapes the group's trajectory. The desk's Elo model rates Spain as a significant favourite, and the market-implied odds sit noticeably tighter than the model's assessment—a gap that rewards backing the European champions. Spain won Euro 2024 and have lost just once since, grinding out results through possession-based football despite some scratchy performances early in tournaments. The model's edge on Spain reflects their proven depth and recent continental success.

Uruguay, meanwhile, have endured a difficult period heading into this tournament. They drew with Saudi Arabia in their opener after struggling in the first half, and their recent form raises questions about intensity and cohesion. Captain José María Giménez flagged travel disruptions before the tournament, and the squad has not won a game since October. Darwin Núñez was withdrawn at half-time against Saudi Arabia after touching the ball just eight times—his lowest tally in a Uruguay start—reflecting limited minutes at Al-Hilal. Federico Valverde remains capable in big moments, but a disappointing club season tempers expectations.

Spain's backline, anchored by experienced defenders, offers solidity that Uruguay's attack struggled to penetrate in recent friendlies. The absence of injuries to key personnel like Lamine Yamal (who featured from the bench against Cape Verde) contrasts with Uruguay's availability questions around their front-line options. Manager Marcelo Bielsa's tactical adjustments at half-time against Saudi Arabia—moving Valverde to a more central role—showed intent but also suggested initial misjudgement.

Spain's draw with Cape Verde, despite 74 percent possession and 27 shots, raised eyebrows about clinical finishing. However, the model's probability advantage on Spain against Uruguay is more pronounced than against a disciplined minnow defence. The fixture is Group H's heavyweight encounter, and the Elo gap, combined with market sentiment that underprices Spain relative to the model, sets up a favourable risk-reward for backing Luis de la Fuente's side.

One wrinkle: Uruguay have finished third at Copa America and reached the World Cup quarter-finals in 2018, so they are far from a spent force. But the accumulation of form issues, squad fitness concerns, and Bielsa's swan-song nature after this tournament all weigh against them. Spain's model edge is clear.