Uruguay favoured to overcome Cape Verde despite recent form concerns

Uruguay arrive as clear favourites in a Group H match where the underlying model assessment sits well above the market's current pricing. The Elo gap between the two sides is substantial, reflecting Uruguay's pedigree as a two-time World Cup winner against a debutant nation ranked significantly lower. The market has priced this fixture conservatively for the favourite.

Cape Verde's shock draw against European champions Spain has rewritten expectations around their defensive capability. The 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha delivered a player-of-the-match performance with seven saves, and the team committed only one foul in the entire match—the fewest recorded in a World Cup game since 1966—demonstrating exceptional discipline and organisation. That result suggests a team far more competitive than their ranking implies, capable of frustrating opposition through a compact, well-drilled defensive shape.

Uruguay's own start was mixed. They drew 1-1 with Saudi Arabia after trailing, with Darwin Núñez notably withdrawn at half-time following a subdued first-half display. The underlying possession and chance-creation data favoured Bielsa's side—they generated 28 shots on goal in the second half and dominated large stretches—but clinical finishing remains a concern. The news reflects a side in transition: they have not won a game since October, and have drawn a blank in nine of their last 15 matches since the Copa América semi-finals in summer 2024. That suggests attacking rhythm may take time to establish.

The Elo model regards Uruguay as the clear favourite given their tournament history and individual quality, particularly in midfield where Federico Valverde's work-rate and creativity are pivotal to Bielsa's high-energy system. Against a debutant side, the structural edge is pronounced. However, the market has priced this contest tighter than the underlying quality gap would suggest, leaving scope for the model's assessment to prove more accurate than the current implied odds.

Cape Verde's resolve against Spain hints that a narrow defeat is plausible rather than a rout, but the weight of evidence—Elo gap, tournament experience, and Bielsa's tactical sophistication—points to Uruguay as the value side at the current market prices.