Belgium look to impose class on lowest-ranked World Cup side

New Zealand drew 2-2 with Iran in their opener, twice taking the lead through Elijah Just but surrendering both advantages to show the kind of defensive fragility that has haunted them across three World Cup appearances. The All Whites remain the lowest-ranked side in the tournament and have never won a World Cup match, a record that stretches across two prior campaigns. Belgium, by contrast, drew 1-1 with Egypt in their first game after trailing for much of the contest, with Romelu Lukaku making an immediate impact off the bench despite carrying fitness concerns into the tournament.

The Elo ratings paint a stark disparity: Belgium sit well above New Zealand in adjusted strength, reflecting their status as a major-tournament contender with experience at this level. The model's assessment of Belgium's win probability materially exceeds what the market currently prices, creating a gap in Belgium's favour. The desk sees this gap as substantial enough to merit a pick on the favourites.

Lukaku's availability remains a question mark—he has played only 64 minutes at club level this season and Belgium coach Rudi Garcia has stated he is "not ready yet to start a game," though his substitute appearance against Egypt, where he forced an own goal just 28 seconds after entering, proved his value even in limited fitness. Kevin De Bruyne continues to be a difference-maker in midfield, and Jeremy Doku's pace and dribbling prowess create constant attacking threats.

New Zealand's setup relies heavily on the physical presence of 34-year-old Chris Wood, who dominated play against Iran but is managing a serious knee injury sustained late last year. The supporting cast of Elijah Just and Sarpreet Singh offers pace on the break, yet the side lacks the creative infrastructure and defensive solidity Belgium can call upon. Belgium's experience in tight matches and their ability to grind out results—seen in their recovery against Egypt—stands in sharp contrast to New Zealand's tendency to concede momentum in the second half.

The edge sits with Belgium at the implied odds. The model's view is considerably more bullish on the Red Devils than the market reflects, and with Lukaku now in the tournament environment and De Bruyne's tournament pedigree in the mix, Belgium should prove too much for the All Whites.