Tunisia vs Netherlands: World Cup Group F preview

Tunisia vs Netherlands

The Elo model carries a large gap between these two sides, rating the Netherlands significantly above Tunisia in adjusted terms. Critically, the market's implied odds on a Dutch win sit meaningfully below what the model estimates the true probability to be — a clear positive edge on the Netherlands that the desk views as actionable rather than marginal.

Tunisia's position looks precarious. Sweden exposed serious frailties in the Eagles of Carthage opener, winning emphatically and punishing goalkeeping and defensive errors that manager Sabri Lamouchi himself described as unforgivable at this level. Tunisia conceded five times despite having cruised through African qualifying without shipping a goal — a dramatic shift that points to structural vulnerabilities rather than a one-off aberration. Lamouchi's rebuild, which included eleven new call-ups and five starters making their competitive debuts in the opener, now faces its sternest test yet.

The Netherlands, for their part, left points on the table against Japan. Ronald Koeman's side led twice but conceded a late equaliser, with defensive substitutions in the closing stages drawing criticism. Frenkie de Jong was composed in midfield and showed full fitness, while Van Dijk and Summerville both got on the scoresheet — so attacking output was not the issue. What that 2-2 draw confirmed, though, is that the Dutch can be caught if they disengage too early. Against Tunisia's limitations, that risk is considerably lower.

The injury picture tilts heavily toward the Dutch. The Netherlands' own pre-tournament fitness concerns — covering players like Xavi Simons, Schouten, and others — are largely baked into their Elo rating. Tunisia, meanwhile, carry no comparable attacking threats capable of exploiting Dutch defensive lapses the way Japan's Kamada did. Hannibal Mejbri offers creativity at number ten, and Tunisia's defensive shape remains their best asset, but that structure collapsed entirely against Sweden's high press.

Tactically, the Dutch dominate possession and scored through set-piece and transition against Japan — two delivery methods that tend to work even more reliably against lower-block sides. If Tunisia look to keep things tight, the Netherlands have enough individual quality across Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen (15 Serie A goals since January), and an improving Gravenberch engine to find openings over 90 minutes.

The model rates this fixture firmly in Dutch territory, and the market appears to undervalue that probability. The edge is clear, not marginal.