Mexico favoured to overcome South Korea in Group A opener

Mexico enter this fixture on the back of an emphatic opening performance that saw them dispatch South Africa 2-0 at the Azteca, with Julian Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez on the scoresheet. Manager Javier Aguirre's side controlled the match from start to finish, and the nature of the victory—achieved despite some early nerves and three player cramps attributed to the occasion—suggests a team settling into tournament rhythm. Raúl Jiménez's contribution is particularly significant; the 37-year-old centre-forward, playing in his fourth World Cup, finally got his first World Cup start and scored with a powerful header, a moment that carried emotional weight six years after a life-threatening fractured skull.

South Korea, meanwhile, earned an impressive 2-1 comeback victory over Czech Republic in their opener. The match showed the attacking intent of Hong Myung-Bo's setup, with Hwang In-Beom and Oh Hyeon-Gyu combining to overturn Ladislav Krejčí's early second-half goal. The Koreans demonstrated high possession (62 percent) and technical quality in open play, though Son Heung-Min, despite six shots in the match, failed to find the back of the net—an early sign that finishing could prove costly if chances dry up.

The Elo model's prior probability for Mexico sits materially above the current market-implied odds, suggesting the desk sees the hosts as underrated at the implied price. Mexico's home advantage is substantial: they boast the greatest home advantage of any nation at this tournament, backed by fervent support at the Azteca, plus altitude and heat conditions that favour teams accustomed to them. South Korea, by contrast, will travel and face an opponent riding the psychological momentum of a convincing opening performance.

Defensively, Mexico lost captain Cesar Montes to a late red card against South Africa, forcing Aguirre to rotate at centre-back for this fixture. That reshuffle is a minor concern, but the overall structure under Erik Lira's holding role has provided defensive solidity. South Korea's backline will need to be alert; the hosts' wide areas have proven dangerous in the tournament so far, and the creative threat posed by young talents like Gilberto Mora—at 17, the tournament's youngest player—adds unpredictability to Mexico's attacking play.

The model favours Mexico to control this match's rhythm and likelihood of victory. South Korea's opening win was genuine and well-deserved, but the implied odds have not fully accounted for the scale of Mexico's home-field advantage and the quality edge that the desk's Elo ratings assign to the hosts. For the reader seeking value, the edge sits with Mexico, though South Korea's technical quality and proven ability to score in open play means this remains a live group-stage contest rather than a foregone conclusion.