Czech Republic aims to build on playoff run as South Africa seeks redemption

Czech Republic and South Africa meet in a Group A fixture where both sides harbour knockout hopes but find themselves in precarious positions after their opening matches. Mexico's dominant 2–0 win over South Africa has raised the bar considerably, while Czech Republic emerged from a tight contest against South Korea that could have gone either way.

The desk's Elo model assigns Czech Republic a clear edge in this matchup. The team rode the momentum of dramatic penalty shootout victories over Ireland and Denmark in qualifying, and that sense of fortitude showed in their opening performance against South Korea—they took the lead through Ladislav Krejci but ultimately fell short. However, the model's assessment reflects Czech Republic's underlying strength relative to South Africa's current standing.

South Africa's opening proved disastrous. Hugo Broos fielded a defensive 5-3-2 formation that former captain Dean Furman publicly criticized as unsuitable to the team's style, and two red cards—Sphephelo Sithole early in the second half and Themba Zwane late on—compounded matters. Goalkeeper Ronwen Williams, despite his penalty-saving heroics at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, conceded twice in a one-sided affair. The team faces a do-or-die scenario: defeat here likely ends their tournament hopes in a group where Mexico and South Korea have already established themselves as the probable qualifiers.

Czech Republic's tactical approach appears better suited to the task. The model sees them as having a meaningful Elo advantage, though the market has priced the outcome more tightly. South Africa's recent form—exits at the last-16 stage of the Africa Cup of Nations and mixed results in friendlies—suggests they remain a level below. Krejci's goal-scoring threat from set plays and Patrik Schick's clinical finishing offer Czech Republic legitimate attacking avenues.

The bounce-back narrative favours the team that has less to recover from. South Africa must overturn a psychological blow on the heels of a chaotic opening; Czech Republic, despite losing, showed cohesion and attacking intent. The edge sits with the Czechs, underdogs in the popular imagination but backed by the quantitative signals.